Sector 1 of 4 · Mobility

How we move: transport & mobility

Transport is about a quarter of Belgium's final energy use. The negaWatt-BE scenario reaches deep cuts not by electrifying cars alone, but by first travelling differently — shorter distances, fuller vehicles and a large shift towards trains, buses and bikes. Below, every assumption is broken down into a single, tangible lever: where we are in 2019, where the scenario aims for 2050, and how realistic the jump is.

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Passenger demand & modal shift

Two levers dominate passenger transport: travelling somewhat less (demand) and travelling by different means (modal split). The chart shows how the share of each mode changes between 2019 and 2050.

Passenger modal split, 2019 vs 2050

Share of total passenger-kilometres by mode (source: transport notebook).

Passenger mobility intensity

The total distance each person travels per year falls by about 10%. The drivers are teleworking, living closer to daily destinations, an ageing population and closer holiday choices — roughly half of the cut comes from flying less.

Feasibility debate The French négaWatt scenario assumes a deeper −23%. A 10% reduction is more conservative but still reverses decades of growth in distance travelled; it needs concrete policies (urban densification, transport pricing) to be credible.
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Car modal share

The car loses its dominant position: its share of distance travelled drops by almost a third, with those kilometres reassigned to buses, trains, cycling and walking. This is the centrepiece of the passenger scenario.

Feasibility debate A modal shift of this magnitude has not been achieved by any EU country within 30 years without transformative investment in public transport and cycling infrastructure.
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Bus & coach modal share

Buses and coaches roughly double their share as car trips and some short flights move to collective road transport.

Feasibility debate Achievable with bus-priority lanes and denser service, but requires sustained operating subsidies and reliable frequencies to attract drivers.
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Conventional train modal share

Conventional rail more than doubles its share, absorbing car trips and short-haul flights that are replaced by ground transport.

Feasibility debate Belgian rail was already strained in 2019; capacity, punctuality and fares must all improve markedly for ridership to grow this fast.
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High-speed train modal share

High-speed rail roughly triples its share, taking over a slice of intra-EU flights to neighbouring capitals.

Feasibility debate Depends on competitive international ticket pricing and cross-border capacity, both outside Belgium's sole control.
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Tram & metro modal share

Light rail and metro roughly triple their share, concentrated in dense urban areas where they are most effective.

Feasibility debate The authors themselves flag this tripling as likely too high: it needs entirely new lines, which take 10–15 years to plan and build.
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Bicycle modal share

Cycling (boosted by e-bikes) more than doubles its share, taking over many short car trips.

Feasibility debate A national share at this level implies a Dutch/Danish cycling culture. Plausible in Flanders, more optimistic given hilly Walloon geography and dispersed settlement.
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Walking modal share

Walking grows modestly as neighbourhoods become more compact and as walking links trips to public transport.

Feasibility debate A small, low-risk lever; mostly a by-product of denser, car-light urban planning.
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Two-wheeler modal share

Powered two-wheelers (mostly electric scooters) grow slightly for urban commuting.

Feasibility debate Minor lever; safety and weather limit how far it can substitute for cars.
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Intra-EU aviation

Half of intra-European flights are replaced by rail and coach, in line with the European push against short-haul aviation.

Feasibility debate A 50% cut exceeds most policy proposals, which target only flights under a ~2.5 h train alternative (around 20–30% of intra-EU flights).
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Extra-EU aviation

Long-haul flying — the single most energy-intensive way to travel — is reduced by 40% in absolute terms.

Feasibility debate International aviation has grown 3–5% per year for decades. An absolute 40% reduction would require carbon pricing strong enough to make flying much more expensive, or explicit rationing.
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Vehicles & energy

Once we travel differently, the remaining trips run on cleaner, fuller and more efficient vehicles. These levers electrify the fleet and raise how many people share each vehicle.

Car occupancy (carpooling)

Each car carries far more people on average, through carpooling and ride-sharing. This single lever cuts car energy use by roughly 40%.

Feasibility debate This is the most ambitious and least-supported assumption in the model. EU occupancy has been flat around 1.2–1.5 for 30 years. If it only reached 1.5, car energy demand would be about a third higher than the scenario assumes.
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Battery-electric cars

The remaining car fleet is almost entirely battery-electric by 2050, with diesel and petrol all but gone.

Feasibility debate Aggressive but within the range of mainstream scenarios (the IEA Net-Zero pathway reaches over 85% electric sales by 2050). The EU 2035 ban on new combustion-car sales makes this the most robust assumption on the page.
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Car energy use per km

Each kilometre uses about a quarter less energy thanks to lower speed limits, eco-driving, smaller and lighter cars and more efficient powertrains.

Feasibility debate Plausible overall, but the individual contributions are not separated; the trend toward heavier SUVs works against it.
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Electric buses & coaches

City and regional buses become overwhelmingly electric, with a small share of hydrogen and gas for long coaches.

Feasibility debate Reasonable and already underway in several Belgian operators; depot charging and grid connections are the main constraints.
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Electric bicycles (e-bikes)

Most cycling distance is done on e-bikes, which make longer and hillier trips realistic substitutes for the car.

Feasibility debate In line with current sales trends; capped below 100% because short, flat trips and folding bikes stay muscle-powered.
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Electric two-wheelers

Mopeds and scooters shift overwhelmingly to electric drive.

Feasibility debate Low-risk: electric scooters are already cost-competitive and widely available.
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Conventional train electrification

The last diesel passenger trains are phased out, leaving a fully electric conventional network.

Feasibility debate A small, well-established step that extends the existing electrification trend.
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Train energy use per pkm

Rolling-stock efficiency and higher load factors cut the energy used per passenger-kilometre.

Feasibility debate Modest and realistic; depends partly on filling trains better, which the modal-shift assumptions already require.
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Hydrogen on intra-EU flights

A small share of short flights uses hydrogen aircraft; the rest still burns kerosene.

Feasibility debate Realistic given delays to hydrogen aircraft. Note that sustainable aviation fuels (mandated by ReFuelEU) are handled downstream in the energy-supply model, not here.
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Freight

Goods transport follows the same logic: move slightly less tonnage, shift it to rail and waterways, fill vehicles better and switch to electricity, hydrogen and alternative marine fuels.

Freight modal split, 2019 vs 2050

Share of total tonne-kilometres by mode (source: transport notebook).

Freight transport intensity

Tonne-kilometres per person fall by about 10% through dematerialisation, shorter supply chains and some reshoring.

Feasibility debate Freight intensity is driven by GDP structure and trade, largely outside domestic control; the assumption aligns with the post-2016 stabilisation but is hard to steer with policy.
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Heavy-duty trucks modal share

A quarter of heavy-truck tonne-kilometres shift to rail and inland waterways, cutting the trucks' share of freight.

Feasibility debate Ambitious: Belgian rail freight has been declining. Reaching these targets requires reversing that trend with reliable, competitive rail and barge services.
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Rail freight modal share

Rail freight grows by half, recapturing tonnage from long-distance trucking.

Feasibility debate The very starting point is uncertain: statistical sources disagree on the rail share (about 18% vs 12%), which strongly affects the result.
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Inland navigation modal share

Barges on rivers and canals take a larger share of heavy freight, using Belgium's dense waterway network.

Feasibility debate Realistic where waterways exist, but limited to bulk goods and routes that connect to navigable water.
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Light commercial vehicles modal share

Vans keep roughly the same share of freight; their tonnage simply follows the overall 10% intensity reduction.

Feasibility debate Booming e-commerce could push van traffic up; cargo bikes for last-mile delivery are noted in the notebook but not yet modelled.
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Coastal navigation modal share

Short-sea shipping keeps a small, roughly constant share.

Feasibility debate International maritime bunkers (Antwerp-Bruges, Europe's 2nd port) are excluded for now — a significant gap flagged for future work.
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Intra-EU air freight modal share

Air freight within Europe stays a marginal share, following overall intensity.

Feasibility debate No modal shift is assumed here; the notebook flags possible future reductions as an open item.
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Extra-EU air freight modal share

Long-haul air freight remains a small share of tonne-kilometres, scaling with overall demand.

Feasibility debate Energy-intensive per tonne but small in volume; left unchanged pending better data.
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Battery-electric heavy trucks

The heavy-truck fleet becomes mostly battery-electric, with small shares of hydrogen and gas.

Feasibility debate Real-world consumption assumed (~130 kWh/100 km) may be 15–25% higher with Belgian gradients and cold weather; megawatt charging networks are still nascent.
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Electric light commercial vehicles

Delivery vans electrify almost completely, mirroring the passenger-car transition.

Feasibility debate Well-supported for urban duty cycles; depot and on-street charging are the main bottlenecks.
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Freight rail electrification

Almost all rail freight runs on electricity, with only a small diesel remainder for non-electrified sidings.

Feasibility debate Low-risk extension of existing electrification; last-mile diesel shunting is the hardest part to remove.
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Fossil diesel in domestic navigation

Inland and coastal vessels move away from fossil diesel towards ammonia, methanol and hydrogen, leaving diesel a minority fuel.

Feasibility debate These marine fuels are emerging technologies with high uncertainty, and the model assumes the same energy use per kilometre across all of them.
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Heavy-truck load factor

Trucks carry slightly more on each trip through better logistics and fewer empty runs.

Feasibility debate A modest, realistic gain; digital freight matching and consolidation can deliver it.
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Want the full calculation? Every number on this page is produced by the transport notebook. Open the flattened notebook to see the data sources, formulas and intermediate steps.