The hypotheses behind a sufficient and fair energy transition
This site makes the negaWatt-BE scenario's sufficiency assumptions concrete and tangible for the public. Each sector is broken down into individual levers — with the current status (reference year 2019), the 2050 target, and the debates around feasibility that surround each jump.
Four sectors, one scenario
Transport
Moving differently: modal shift, shorter distances, fuller vehicles and clean fleets.
Buildings
Heating, hot water, cooking and appliances in homes and workplaces.
Industry
Steel, cement, chemicals, material sufficiency, recycling and electrification.
Population & context
Population, households and the conversion factors that underpin every sector.
Sufficiency first, then efficiency, then renewables
The négaWatt method deliberately prioritises sufficiency — avoiding waste and changing behaviour — before efficiency (delivering the same service with less energy) and only then scaling renewables. The reference year is 2019, chosen to avoid COVID distortions; the horizon is 2050, with linear trajectories between milestone years.
Want to understand how to read the cards and charts? See How to read this site.